Thailand: what a year of nightly rates says
Fifty-three luxury properties, twelve markets, two coasts on opposite clocks: where Thailand runs under its usual rate, and when.
- Properties watched
- 53
- Markets
- 12
- Price observations
- 334,231
Thailand's luxury supply does not discount quietly. Between the February peak and the September floor, the median property in our registry moves about a third of its own annual level: 18.5 percent over its usual rate at the top of the year, 16.4 percent under it at the bottom. The whole arc is visible in the forward curve months before it happens.
The more useful finding is that Thailand is not one season. It is two coasts on opposite clocks. In August the Andaman side runs deep under its usual level: Phuket 18 percent under, Krabi 18 percent under, Khao Lak at half its own year. Cross to the Gulf and the sign flips. Koh Samui runs 18 percent over its usual August rate, and Koh Phangan 60 percent over. The southwest monsoon empties one coast while the European holiday season fills the other.
Thailand, median nightly rate by month
| Janpriciest | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sepcheapest | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$663 | $653 | $599 | $564 | $529 | $541 | $558 | $601 | $490 | $516 | $552 | $596 |
Median nightly rate by calendar month, frozen July 4, 2026. Every room at every property counts: a room's figure is its median across the month's dates, a property's figure is the median across its rooms, and each point here is the median across the 53 properties.
Reading the curve
September is the floor month nationally: the median property runs 16.4 percent under its own annual level, at a median nightly rate of $490 across the registry. The peak is January and February, when the same properties run 14 to 18.5 percent over. April is the hinge, within a tenth of a percent of the year's level, the last balanced month before monsoon pricing sets in.
A national median flattens the coasts' disagreement, so read it as the baseline rather than the plan. The market ledger below is August; the live explorer holds the other eleven months.
| Market | Hotels | Median rate | vs usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangkok | 21 | $496 | 10% cheaper |
| Koh Samui | 8 | $861 | 18% pricier |
| Phuket | 8 | $587 | 18% cheaper |
| Chiang Mai | 4 | $538 | 13% cheaper |
| Krabi | 3 | $641 | 18% cheaper |
| Hua Hin | 2 | $310 | 5% cheaper |
| Khao Lak | 2 | $158 | 50% cheaper |
| Koh Phangan | 1 | $1,042 | 60% pricier |
| Golden Triangle | 1 | $1,763 | 9% cheaper |
| Pattaya | 1 | $184 | 17% cheaper |
| Koh Yao Noi | 1 | $1,326 | 25% cheaper |
| Koh Yao Yai | 1 | $608 | 3% cheaper |
August 2026 by market. Median rate is the middle room's typical nightly rate at the market's middle property; vs usual compares each market's August against its own annual level.
Khao Lak, worked through
The clearest August case in the registry. The Khao Lak Marriott Beach Resort and Spa's middle room typically prices at $210 a night across the year; in August it is $110, which is 48 percent under. Its neighbour, the JW Marriott Khao Lak, moves from a $426 annual level to $206, which is 52 percent under. Same beach, same forecast, half the usual rate. Whether monsoon-season Khao Lak is your idea of a holiday is a judgment; the arithmetic is not.
What to do with this
The pattern is not confined to beaches. The Mandarin Oriental Bangkok, the city's grande dame, runs 38 percent under its own level in August, $1,004 against $1,632. Bangkok as a market sits 10 percent under, which for a city of 21 watched properties is a broad, quiet drop that never announces itself.
A market median tells you when to look; it cannot tell you what your room costs. The instrument for that is a tracker on the exact room you mean to book: Fermata watches it nightly and emails you when it reaches your price. Following a hotel is free, and so is your first tracker.
How these figures are made
Fermata records the public nightly rate for every room category at every property it watches, night after night. A report distills those observations into medians: the middle room at the middle property in each market, so no single villa or promotional rate can bend a number. This issue is built from 334,231 observations, frozen on July 4, 2026. More on how Fermata reads rates
Pro members see today's map
This report is a snapshot.
The live explorer reads the whole landscape every night: every market, every month, drillable to the hotel.